Macroeconomic Analysis, Modeling and Forecasting (MAMF)
A key research programme of the Institution is the Macroeconomic Forecast Modeling Initiative. The Initiative is designed to design and operationalise macroeconomic forecast model for Nigeria. This research task is being done under the Macroeconomic Analysis, Modeling and Forecasting (MAMF) Thematic Working Group of the Institution.
The modeling project that combines ‘appropriate’ frameworks for modeling that involves critical thinking on the model structure with an outreach programme that elicits and incorporates regular inputs from diverse end-user institutions and agencies. The approach is to adopt rigorous theoretical processes that incorporate recent developments in the model-building literature with current developments in the economy and use these to analyze their present as well as make projections about their future trends and impacts. Secondly, using simulations, the model will make alternative assumptions about shocks and relate their implications for the evolution of selected macroeconomic indices in the economy in a way that informs the policymaker on available options to ensure minimal negative impact of such shocks on the economy. More importantly, the current model is designed to exist as a “going concern” to meet up with the challenges of policy shifts rather than be associated with a particular regime. In this regard the current work shall be regularly updated. A major value added is that the current model is self regulatory since the output from the forecasts will be disseminated and communicated to the end users on a regular basis.
The objectives of the modeling initiative are to:
The expected outputs and impacts are conceived in such a manner that they meet the needs of the present, and are sustainably serve as reference for future work in modeling of the Nigerian economy. Consequently, outputs from the project will be a mix of analytical papers that assess and make projections of trends in the macro economy and consultative meetings that bring together relevant stakeholders and end users of the products from the classroom work.